WM Phoenix Open Golf Betting Tips

Sports betting and golf.

The WM Phoenix Open is an event that dates back to 1932 and takes place in the Phoenix, Arizona, area. The top 65 players plus ties will advance to play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend, as we have 132 players competing this week.
The winner of this week’s $8.2M will have over $1M in cash and 500 FedEx Cup points. The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale is 7,261 yards in length and a par 71. Over the last ten years, the average winning score at this tournament has been -18. The -28 tournament record is held by Phil and Mark. Place bets on golfers who are strong on approach, solid tee to green, sound off the tee, are good around greens, and hit a long ball from the tee blocks.
You can increase your odds by using projected PGA Tour player statistics and finishes.

There are three questions I have about the Phoenix Open.

  1. It’s tempting to not bet Jon Rahm. I’m usually all over him whenever the world’s top golfer is playing, he has a strong track record at this event finishing no lower than T16 in six starts and his best effort was a T5 in 2015.
  2. Is Hideki Matsuyama a good bet? Yes. He has won here twice in the last year, and he has two wins in his last four starts, so everything looks good for him this week. He’s a good betting option, but I couldn’t feature him over either Thomas or Rahm.
  3. Which player will entertain us the most on hole 16? TPC Scottdale’s par 3 16th is one of the most enjoyable holes to watch in golf as 20,000 people surround it and 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 888-270-6611 Some of the players will make us laugh and astound us, but it’s hard to say who will give us the goods this year.
    There are two players from each of four different betting tiers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would advise you to place some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots to hedge against your bet.

There are quick links.

There are more golf betting articles.
There are golf projections.
The PGA Optimizer is a tool.

Lower than + 2500.

Jon Rahm has finished T5 to T16 here in six starts, and has eight top 9’s in his last twelve starts, and he’s consistently spot on with every club in his bag. He’s invested in winning this local tournament because he went to Arizona State University and still lives in Arizona. If you want to be careful with your money, just bet him to finish top 10 and he will do well.

The approach being the most important key stat on this course is what I love about Thomas, he has five top 5’s in his last eight starts, and with strokes gained, he has been one of the very best approach players in the world for years now. He has four straight top 17’s at this venue, one of them was a 3rd in 2019. I don’t think betting on Thomas to win, finish top 5, or top 10 makes sense.
Daniel Berger has missed the cut in two of the past three years and he had to withdraw from last week’s event due to a back injury. At some point this week, he could withdraw or bow out. He has my attention most weeks, but not this one.

+3000 to 5000.

We haven’t seen Louis since last November, so I’m happy to see that he’s committed to playing this week. He likes this course and has competed here just twice, but has a T11 and a solo 3rd, so he can handle it. He had seven top 8’s last year, three of which were runner-ups. He could show some rust this week, but I think his game is in good shape and he will make a great debut in 2022. It depends on how much risk you can afford to take, I think betting him to finish top 10 or top 20 is the way to go.

Since April last year, Power has won eight top 9’s and six top 19’s, and he has another six top 19’s since last Spring. He can beat you every way, and when something isn’t working well, there’s another part of his game that’s strong and he rolls with it. You can bet that he will finish in the top 5, top 10, or top 20 depending on how bullish you are on the talented Irishman.

I really like Tony Finau as a person and a professional golfer, but he only has one top 10 in his last ten starts and his putter is not too good as he keeps bleeding strokes on the short grass. I don’t think he’s good enough to make a wager on Tony, he missed the cut three years in a row, and he finished runner-up here two years ago.

5000 to10000.

Denny McCarthy has five top 15’s in his last six starts and he’s in the zone as an athlete. He’s one of the best putters on the tour and his short game is very good. He has played here three times and his best finish is a T33, but I think he will finish in the top 20 and crush that this week.

Two weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open, Wise missed the cut after not playing on the PGA Tour since last November. Prior to this year’s start, he had seven straight top 26’s, including a T5 at THECJ CUP, in a fairly elite field. I’m trying to say that he’s a solid all-around player because he’s a superb ball-striker and has a good short game. He missed the cut two years ago and finished T 66 last year, but I believe he will take a big step forward this week and finish in the top 30. I don’t think it’s a good idea to bet on him finishing in the top 20 or top 30.

Abraham Ancer had a T8 last week at the Saudi International on the European Tour but we don’t have strokes gained data to see how he got it done, plus he could be a tad jet-lagged all of this week after coming back. He hasn’t been playing to his best since November of last year and his putter has been giving him fits over his last three tournaments. He missed the cut three years ago, so wait for him to warm up again before betting on him.

Higher than 1000.

With a T3 and a T17 here over the last two years, Lashley looks like an interesting target for this week. He came in T28 last week at Pebble Beach, thanks to gaining 2.97 strokes ball-striking, and if he can keep it up, he could finish in the top 20 for the third year in a row. Don’t put a lot of coin on him, a top 20 or top 30 wager holds some appeal to me, just don’t put a lot of coin on him.

Over his last five starts, Taylor has finished no worse than T41, including a T16 last week where he gained strokes across the board. He doesn’t have the greatest course history here so it’s a bit of a recent form versus past results, but I think betting him to finish top 30 or top 40 is perfectly fine.

He has two missed cuts in his last five starts, a T10 at the Tournament of Champion in a small field, a T 27 two starts ago, and he had a T56 at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago. He’s not very accurate off the tee blocks, so he could find himself in trouble if he’s not careful. This will be his first time competing here, so that’s a slight knock against the Aussies. I advise you to wait for the opportunities to come along for Davis’ raw talent.

It’s important to do a lot of research and due diligence on each player before you fork over your hard-earned money.

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Jeremy has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and is active in many sports. He wrote a daily fantasy sports strategies and tools eBook in 2016 after three years of writing. He has been a member of DraftKings for the past 5 years. He likes spending time with his family, traveling to hot places in the cold Canadian Winters, and starting and managing digital businesses.

images: betting data

source: betting data

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