Analysis and Wagering Recommendations For Both Of Sundays NFL Playoff Games
Our opinion: Vikings at Giants OVER to 45.0 -110
According to our formulas this game is going to produce a lot of points. Despite all the hype you’ve heard about these excellent defenses we expect one or both these teams to score more than 30 points.
So far as the pointspread, we think the situation is too volatile and/or too close to call. We don’t have a clear opinion on which team figures to win the game or cover the spread. In fact, we’re not even sure the game won’t be decided by the end of the 3rd quarter, maybe 34-20 at the end of three quarters, but who’s ahead and who’s behind?
There are too many conflicting subjective factors. For example, the Giants’ quality of competition hasn’t been nearly as good as the Vikings’ opponents, and how motivated were the Vikings in their last 3 or 4 regular season games? The Vikes had a play-off spot sewn up very early in the regular season and that tends to thwart motivations in the last games of the season. If you look at stats from only those last few regular season games the Giants figure to win this game by double digits, but if you look at stats against more equalized competition – going back to mid-season – the Vikings figure to win by double digits. We’re forced to pass the pointspread, but any way we figure it we predict more than 50 total points.
Notice the over/under for the 1st quarter is 7.5 points. We like the Over, of course. Then the over/under for the 3rd quarter is also 7.5 points and we like the Over there, too. If we’re right, we can actually win twice without increasing our bet size by betting the 1st and 3rd quarters to go Over. In fact, win or lose in the 1st quarter, we’d still like the 3rd quarter to go Over, so you might consider a 2-bet parlay. (We’d pass the totals of 13.5 and 13.0 in the 2nd and 4th quarters.) Your book probably won’t let you do it, but how about a 3-banger combining the Overs in the 1st and 3rd quarters with the Over for the entire game?
Our opinion: RAIDERS to -6.0 -110 over Ravens Our opinion: Ravens at Raiders OVER to 37.0 -110
We expect Oakland to score between 21 and 28 points in this game while Baltimore manages only between 10 and 17 points. Moreover, we think there is at least a 55% chance of this game producing 37 or more total points, but we do not advise parlaying this total with anything else.
thedailyspread.com | January 13th, 2001
– – – – – – – – – – – –About the writer
JR is author of the sports betting classic – ‘How Professional Gambler’s Beat the Pro Football Pointspread”. He’s also the greatest all around handicapper we’ve ever seen.