Sports Betting Wisdom

Another offshore sports book alert, to possible plays for this weekend, to the thoughts on the NLCS — the week that was is covered thoroughly by The Sports and Gaming News

Sports & Gaming News

This Saturday’s Ohio State at Minnesota line sits at Minny -2½, a gargantuan difference from last year’s spread where Ohio State was -38½ and failed to cover in a 45-15 win at Columbus. Take away 3 points for Ohio State’s home field last year and give the Gophers 3 points for the home edge Saturday and you have a true swing of 5 TD’s. Ohio State has been terrible but Minnesota is receiving a lot of respect considering that their five wins have been against Ohio U, NE Louisiana, Illinois State, Northwestern, and Illinois. In the 90’s Minnesota has not beaten Ohio State, losing by 30, 28, 45, 28, 17, 29, and 29. Of course Minnesota appears to be better than they’ve been since Lou Holtz was their coach and Ohio State has their worst team of the decade. In another pointspread oddity, Virginia Tech’s 62-0 emasculation of Syracuse went over the total of 43½. I’m fairly confident that a shutout has never soared so far over the total.

The Mets put up a pretty good fight, and we’d probably be looking at a Subway series if they were competently managed. By the way, when Robin Ventura’s teammates kept him from circling the bases, knocking the score down from 7-3 to 4-3, it kept the game under the total of 7½. Many sources were reporting the 7- 3 final but I would imagine nobody was able to cash an “over” ticket before they changed it. Tough beat for over bettors, but they didn’t deserve the win anyhow.

Ordinarily it is wise not to believe people making extraordinary claims, but our customers are enjoying our 80%+ winning record in the NFL, which has Strategic Sports Publishing ranked number one in the country in the NFL by the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City. We’ve won all six weeks in the NFL so far but remain below 50% in colleges, which we hope to take care of this weekend. We examine the streakiness of sports betting and the difficulty in getting hot in both college and pro at the same time in a report on our Hotline at 770.618.8700. On Thursday after 3PM we’ll preview that night’s Chiefs-Ravens game. Friday night we release a fully analyzed college late telephone play and Sunday we give the Hilton contrarian play as well as a private contrarian play. The Hotline is a free 24-hour service so call 770.618.8700 any time.

While he’s been fined for his actions, no word yet on whether Mike Ditka’s obscene gestures and crotch grabbing have earned him a deal to record a rap CD from Ricky Williams’ agent’s No Limit Records. Latrell Spreewell, when asked why he didn’t call the Knicks to let them know he’d be late for camp replied, “that’s what agents are for.”

In a sporting community of more and more Spreewells, Alabama star running back Shaun Alexander is a great story. Growing up in Kentucky, he wanted to play football for his state university but former UK Coach Bill Curry and his staff didn’t recruit him, saying he wasn’t quick enough and lacked moves. I’m no recruiting analyst, but I have a feeling Alabama doesn’t ordinarily pin their hopes on Kentucky rejects during the football recruiting process. A redshirt senior, Alexander has already graduated and is working towards another major. Alexander calls his belief in God the center of his life and by all accounts is of superior character to his coach or some of his “clothes horse” Heisman competition.

Offshore alert: Offshore books are feeling the effects of the hurricane right now and WWTS is among shops that have closed down but expect to be open shortly. You can’t evacuate inland when you live on an island. Most of the stories I’ve heard of people getting taken by offshores involve 20%, 40%, or 55% bonuses. Don’t be an idiot. I also wonder why someone is attracted to an offshore book by an ad campaign that largely consists of half-naked women. C’mon guys, we’re talking about your hard-earned money here. Don’t be a moron. Speaking of books to stay away from, I got ANOTHER unsolicited telemarketing call from “Diamond Sports Book” this week.

Baseball profiteering notes you may have missed, the Mets doubled their parking fees to $14 for the playoffs and good World Series seats have a face value of $150 (something that doesn’t affect Mets fans). Imagine you’re a Red Sox season ticket holder and spend a few thou a year for your seats. Boston goes gaga over the Yanks-Sox series, people are paying idiotic prices for tickets, and you decide it would be irresponsible to not put your tickets for one of the games to help defray some of the cost. Red Sox employees actually surfed E-bay and other web sites in order to identify such individuals and cancel their accounts. They even claimed they would be ejecting those who used the tickets. Meanwhile, Coors Light (the beer equivalent to Fresca) on tap goes for $4.75 at Fenway Park and no move is afloat to take away the Sox’ liquor license for price gouging.

Consider using Penn State (-3½) over Purdue on Saturday. Our ride on Michigan State came to an end last week when the Spartans came up flat off their Michigan win and Purdue took advantage of poor defensive play by MSU. The Boilermakers now enter week four of their brutal Michigan-Ohio State-Michigan State-Penn State-Minnesota stretch and now face a Penn State club whose win over Ohio State was much more dominating than the final score indicated. The Buckeyes hadn’t been held below 100 yards either rushing or passing all season and PSU limited them to 65 on the ground and 78 through the air. The Boilermakers do a fine job running things up against outmanned opposition but don’t match up well against teams that offer size and speed to match up with Drew Brees’ fast break offense. Penn State offers particular matchup difficulties, as the Lions continually throttle run & shoot type attacks. The past two years the men in the drab uniforms have belted Joe Tiller’s charges by scores of 42-17 and 31-13. Penn State stuffed a similar Kentucky attack last bowl season. Look for Purdue to rack up passing yards but not points. Penn State’s QB injury won’t hurt, as continuity at the position is needed. The West Lafayette site and Purdue’s win last week makes this price reasonable. Nittany stomp.

Back to baseball for a moment. Bottles, batteries and baseballs fly out of the stands at the idiotic but hysterical John Rocker at Shea, 500 extra cops have to be hired for crowd control at taxpayer expense and it’s just New Yorkers being New Yorkers. The very same weekend some trash gets thrown on the field at Fenway in frustration and it’s termed a “riot” by the media. As Keith Olbermann pointed out, nothing but paper and plastic was thrown on the field. Later reports indicate nobody was hurt or even hit with an object, and it’s a “riot”? Toss an empty plastic bottle or a game program some time and see how “dangerous” they are. Looked to me like the umpires were trying to deflect some attention from their own hideous ineptitude. While the Yankees fully deserve to be the AL champs and made all the plays the Red Sox didn’t, you just have to wonder if there is any sort of screening process in place to become an American League umpire? How about Steinbrenner saying Williams “invoked” the crowd. George sounds like a guy who has had to assert his rights in a court of law one time too many.

When a number finally comes up, I may find myself taking the Philadelphia Eagles with the points over Miami. The Dolphins have been a pointspread clunker as a home favorite over the years and are in a serious letdown spot here. Fish are off of three consecutive divisional games including last second miracle wins over the Colts and Pats. Miami has a trip to Oakland next week. How much focus and effort do you think Jimmy Johnson will get in practice this week? This is the perfect week for picking up dry cleaning, taking out the wife and/or girlfriend, catching up on some phone calls, etc. It’s also the perfect week for a dull Dolphin performance. Even if Danny doesn’t pitch and the line is shorter, we don’t see Huard doing it again this week, as New England prepared for the immobile Marino and didn’t change their game plan after he went out. Philly’s defense is solid and could cause some trouble here. Obviously we’d be more interested in this spot if the Eagles hadn’t somehow managed to piece together consecutive wins. Look for a ‘fin win, but Miami doesn’t cover the number.

Good luck this weekend and be careful.

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thedailyspread.com | October 20th, 1999

– – – – – – – – – – – –About the writer
Kevin is the author of two best selling books on football betting. His weekly column covers the world of sports betting, the media and football handicapping.

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