Reverses Part 2

How to bet like the smart money – Part 2

Here is what it looks like:

Put $100 on team A and if that wins put $100 on Team B.,

and then the reverse of that

Put $100 on Team B and if that wins put $100 on Team A.

Reverses are similar to parlays in that the probability of winning is the same 3-1 against, and you must win both games to come out a winner. Here’s what happens if you win both games: Team A wins for +100 and because it won you now have $110 bet on Team B which when it wins returns another +100 for a $200 win on the top “if” bet. On the reverse or bottom “if” bet when Team B wins you get +100, and because Team B won you now have $110 bet on Team A which returns another +100 when it wins. Total profit on the bottom “if” bet is also $200 for a total of 200 + 200 = $400 on the bet. If both Teams lose, here’s what happens: Team A loses $110 in the top parlay, and because it loses, nothing is bet on Team B.

In the second or reverse bet, Team B loses $110, and because it lost nothing additional is place on Team A.

Total loss for the reverse 110 + 110 = $220. So far so good. We’re paying no more than regular vig. When both win we get the equivalent of a $200 straight bet on both teams. When both lose, however, instead of it costing us $440, it costs only the same as two $110 bets. The bookmaker must be crazy. If we win he gives us what we would have won if we bet $200 on each game, but when we lose he only pay what we would have lost if we bet $100 on each game. When you think the bookmaker must be crazy, think again of the sharpie offering the townsfolk 3-1 on his supposedly even proposition of rolling a 7 before a 12. The kicker in reverse bets is what happens the two out of four times that one team wins and one team loses. If you bet straight, you’d lose only the vig. In a reverse here’s what happens: Team A wins for +100, and because it wins $110 is placed on Team B, which loses for a net of minus $10. No problem yet. But on the bottom “if” bet, Team B loses $110, and because it lost nothing additional gets bet on the winning Team A. This results in a loss of $110 + $10 of vig on the top reverse, for a total loss of $120. Instead of being down only $10 of vig as you would with straight bets, you’re down one bet plus double vig. Here’s what a reverse bet is stated another way: You bet two teams straight. We will then wait until both games are over, and if either team loses, we’ll double the bet on that loser. Does doubling the bet on the loser after you know it’s lost sound smart to you? Let’s look at it. We bet $110 on Team and Team B. After the games are over we find that Team A has lost. We double the bet on Team A to $220. Your loss on Team A is now $220. Subtract the $100 you won on Team B as the single bet winner and your net loss is the same $120 as we calculated for the reverse before. As if that weren’t enough, reverses have all the same money management problems that parlays have. Imagine what Kelly would say when you bet your weaker selection and your stronger selection equally and then double up the bet on the weaker team when it loses more often as it should. Betting equally under Kelly will not maximize your win, but it won’t hurt you either. No problem there. The problem is betting double on a weaker game or double on an equal game. Betting double on an equal game will give you wild fluctuations at all percentage win rates, which fluctuations will tend toward zero. Betting double on the weaker plays will plummet you towardzero. Betting double on a weaker play or on any play after you know it loses defies logic, but that doesn’t stop the suckers playing reverses, not does it seem to stop the losing moron contingent of sports touts from recommending them. | January 13th, 1999

– – – – – – – – – – – –About the writer
Rob Crowne is a professional level sports bettor and owner of the Crowne Club. His free pick line was the impetus for the creation of our site.

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