Duke vs. North Carolina prediction, odds: 2022 college basketball picks, Feb. 5 best bets from proven model

One of the best rivalries in sports is going to happen on Saturday. The Tar Heels and Blue Devil will play for the first time this season. UNC has an 8-3 record in the conference. Duke enters the Tobacco Road Rivalry with an 18-3 record and 8-2 record in conference games.

The game is at 6 p.m. In Chapel Hill. The latest Duke vs. North Carolina odds from Vegas show the Blue Devil’s as three-point road favorites, while the over-under is 141. If you want college basketball predictions and betting advice, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model.

Every college basketball game is projected by the SportsLine Projection Model. Over the past five years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. People who have followed it have seen huge returns.

The model locked in its picks and CBB predictions for Duke vs. UNC. You can see the model’s picks on SportsLine. Bettors can find the college basketball odds and betting lines.

Duke is -2 against North Carolina.
The Duke vs. North Carolina game was over-under.
Duke is a money line favorite over North Carolina.
Duke is 3-2 against the spread in road games.
The Tar Heels are 5-5 against the spread at home.

Why Duke is able to cover.
Duke is ranked in the top 20 nationally in adjusted efficiency and in the top 30 in shooting efficiency. Duke is shooting 36.2 percent from 3-point range and 58.0 percent inside the arc, with help from nearly 59 percent of field goals. North Carolina is one of the worst teams in the country in forcing turnovers on defense, and Duke is one of the best in ball security.

Duke can rely on its top-tier defense, as it is securing 31.5 percent of the offensive glass. The Blue Devil’s are the top team in the country in free-throw prevention on the defensive end. Duke is holding opponents to below average shooting percentages on 2-point attempts and 3-point attempts, with above average block and steal rates.
Why North Carolina is able to cover.

UNC’s offense has been effective. The Tar Heels are 15th in the country in 3-point shooting and 76 percent of their free throw attempts. The Tar Heels are very good at ball security, committing a turnover on only 15% of possessions, and they are also very good at securing the offensive glass. Duke is below average in turnover creation and defensive rebound.
North Carolina is projected to have an edge in the turnover battle because of that combination. The Tar Heels are very good in free- throw prevention and 2-point defense, and they are elite on the defensive glass. Duke is outside of the top 200 in free-throw creation rate on offense.

How to pick UNC vs. Duke.

The total is being projected under by SportsLine’s model. It has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in over 60 percent of simulations. The model’s picks are only available at SportsLine.
Who will win Duke vs. UNC? Which side of the spread does the most damage in simulations? You can see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $2,400 on its top-rated college basketball picks the last five years.

There is a change at the top of the new bracket, like with nearly every other one so far this season.

The Badgers lost at Illinois on Wednesday night, dropping them from a No. 1 seed to a No. 2 seed. The Jayhawks have moved back up to a top seed.

The Jayhawks will play host to the Bears on Saturday in the first of two regular-season meetings.

The seeds of bracketsology.

Palm has a full field of 68 teams and all of them are on the bubble.

What is on an NCAA team sheet?

There was some confusion about what I wrote about on Monday. There were two versions of the team sheets. The one that the selection committee has been using is no longer publicly available, so I thought the other one had replaced it. It was locked down for the committee’s view. I apologize for the confusion.

Conference record and placement do not appear on the committee team sheets and the rankings in five non-NCAA metrics do appear on the team sheets. For a couple of decades, conference record and placement have not been criteria. The committee doesn’t consider anything about a team’s conference during the process. The name of the conference is not included in the team sheets.

The other metrics have been on the team sheets for a while, but were being discussed by the committee during deliberations before they were officially added to the sheet.

The NCAA provided an example of the information on the team sheets the selection committee uses.

The NCAA.

Click here to enlarge

The NET and other rankings are at the top of the line. These aren’t used to make decisions. The committee doesn’t compare the NET rankings of a couple of teams to determine which should be selected. If the information in the more important parts of the resume doesn’t match up with the rankings, a discussion will probably take place.

The answer is usually margin of victory. That is a significant factor in some form or fashion. Most of the others are results-oriented. SOR could be as well. The selection committee doesn’t generally reward margin of victory. If a team is counting on a good ranking alone to get into the tournament, it will be disappointed.

There is a box below the rankings. The strength of schedule rankings is important, but the road record is as well. The strength of a team’s schedule is one of the things being judged. It’s not unusual for a team on the bubble to be left out of the tournament because of a poor non-conference schedule.

The committee wants to see that teams can perform well away from home. The neutral site games are not listed in that box.

The box below that has the record in those games on it. This is a good starting point for comparing teams. The devil is in the details.

The most important part of a team’s resume is the actual games and results. This is where the comparisons can be made between the different opponents. The Quad 1 list is divided into two parts. The Quad 2 box has a division as well, but there are no games in the second part of Q2, so no line is drawn. Quads 3 and 4 are not the same.

This will probably be the last time you see a team sheet this season.

Bubble Watch will make its debut on Tuesday. I believe that teams on the bubble are affected by games on a daily basis. The bubble is fairly large this time of year, and teams will go on and off of it as we progress towards Selection Sunday.

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Source:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/duke-vs-north-carolina-prediction-odds-2022-college-basketball-picks-feb-5-best-bets-from-proven-model/

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