The odds of the Rams winning.
The odds of the Cincinnati team winning.
6:30 p.m. The time is later.
You can bet on the odds via DraftKings. Here you can find Super Bowl odds.
The Rams are coming off back-to-back three-point wins, while the Bengals are riding three straight one-score wins to the Super Bowl.
Who will have luck on Sunday evening?
We will break down how I bet the spread and over/under.
Chris Raybon has more.
There are props and longshots.
How the Rams and theBengals match up.
The Rams defense is against the Bengals offense.
According to data from PFF, the defense that Joe Burrow and Co. will face is the third-most reliant on zone coverage in the league.
Cover 3 is the most common defensive alignment for the Rams. The Rams have a different reliance on Cover 4 than most teams. The Rams used Cover 4 more than any other team. He had success against Cover 3, ranking second in success rate among 32 passers with at least 100 attempts, but his success rate dropped to 42% against Cover 4, which was 24th of 35 quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts.
Ja’Marr Chase is the main guy in the receiving group, but he won’t be the only one. Despite running 13 fewer routes than Chase, Higgins led the team in catches, yards and first downs against Cover 4.
According to PFF, Jalen Ramsey split his snaps between the right corner, the slot, and the left corner. The slot snaps of Chase increased from 17.2% during the regular season to 21.3% in the playoffs. Due to their zone scheme, the Rams can’t use Ramsey as a true shadow corner, but they would like to match him up with Chase as much as possible, so there is sure to be some cat-and-mouse going on.
If Chase commands the attention of the defense in a big way, the path to offensive success can be traced back to Higgins stepping up in a big way.
Even if Chase lines up in the slot more than usual, the primary slot receiver will be Tyler Boyd, who could also loom large in this game. Why? The Rams are weak under the middle of the field because of their zone scheme, and they ranked 30th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA on passes to the short middle. Football Outsiders reported that they allowed more yards per pass to the slot than out wide.
David Long Jr., who graded out below-average in coverage with a 68.1 PFF grade, isn’t the problem; it’s Troy Reader, who graded out below-average in coverage with a 3. With three or four deep defenders, offenses are able to get a one-on-one against Reeder in the middle of the field. Reeder has allowed the highest passer rating among the 11 Rams defenders who saw at least 10 targets.
Although he doesn’t play out of the slot much, he could exploit the Rams’ weakness in the short middle. The team has 38 short-middle targets, and Higgins is second with 26. According to Sharp Football Stats, the success rate for the short-middle targets has been a respectable 58%, but the success rate for the long-middle targets has been an absurd 92%.
Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire. There is a group of people pictured: Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins.
The best course of action for the Rams is to sit back in coverage.
It has been noted that Burrow isn’t as good against Cover 4.
When the defense sends extra defenders, Burrow shreds it, leading the league with a 11.2 YPA.
The Rams have to protect a shaky group of coverage players who aren’t named Jalen Ramsey. The Rams secondary has coverage grades and ranks.
The first of 118 CBs was 88.0 by Jalen Ramsey.
The CB is David Long Jr.
S Taylor Rapp had a score of 58.6.
Nick Scott was 65th of 95)
CB Darious Williams is last of 118.
Even if he laces up his cleats to play, C.J. Uzomah may not be 100%, but his injury may not be a factor in the passing game.
The Rams have mostly been exploited by quick-twitch type players, which explains why they are 24th against running backs. The success rate on short-middle targets was less than 50%, and Uzomah was a distant fourth.
Over his last five games, Joe Mixon has averaged 5.2 catches for 43.2 yards and could be a big factor in the passing game once again, as screen passes could be a means of slowing down the Rams pass rush.
There are two receiving props to bet on the Super Bowl.
The key to winning the game is the Rams pass rush, even if Ramsey is in the game, because they have more good players in coverage.
The right side of the line could be an issue for the left tackle, left guard, and center who have graded out as average in pass-blocking. The right tackle and the guards were the worst in the country. Leonard Floyd has bigger name recognition than Von Miller and Aaron Donald, but he could end up having the biggest game as he will be matched up with Prince on the right side. In 20 games, Floyd has 70 pressures and 13 sacks.
The Rams are fourth in run defense despite playing light boxes on most rushing plays. The Rams were third in YPC allowed and sixth in success rate allowed when using light boxes.
The Bengals are going to want to run the ball with Mixon against this defense, as they have been one of the better teams in the league at running against light boxes with their running backs.
The light box had a success rate of 45.5%.
The box had a success rate of 36.0%.
A stacked box has a YPC of 3.4 and a success rate of 34.3%.
I don’t think the Bengals will use many two-TE sets in the game if Uzomah is available. The Rams have been a lot better against 11 personnel than they have been against 12 personnel. The Rams allowed 5.7 yards per play compared to 11 and 4.5 yards per play.
The Rams offense and defense played each other.
The Cincinnati defense has done a good job of mixing coverages this season. They played Cover 3 38.6% of the time, Cover 1 17.3% of the time, Cover 2 16.6% of the time, and Cover 4 12.4% of the time.
We should expect the Bengals to go away from their preferred single-high coverages and skew toward a two-deep shell in this game, as Stafford averaged 9.5 YPA (third) and a 55.7% SR (first) against single-high coverages compared to 8.0 YPA (seven
You don’t want to get in the way of Stafford.
Stafford is second in the league in YPA against the blitz and has thrown 15 touchdown with just one interception when the defense sends extra pressure. According to Pro Football Reference Advanced Stats, the Cincinnati defense generated pressure 24.5% of the time, but only 20.5% of the time during the regular season.
Drop eight into coverage is what the ace in the hole could be like.
The Rams ranked 27th in YPA and 22nd in success rate against three or fewer pass defenders. Why is this successful against the Rams? The defense can contain Cooper Kupp.
Against three-man rushes, Kupp was only targeted 21.4% of the time and averaged 0.74 Yards Per Route Run. He was targeted 30.4% of the time and averaged 3.32 YPRR. The Rams have one of the best pass-blocking lines in the league, and since they don’t have an extra defender in coverage, it’s not hard to imagine the Bengals deciding their four-man rush won’t be as impactful as having an extra defender in coverage.
The Rams have one of the game’s superstars in the secondary, but the other team has a stronger unit. The coverage grades and ranks are for the starting secondary of the Bengals.
S Vonn Bell had a score of 81.0.
The CB Chidobe Awuzie is 18th of 118.
CB Mike Hilton had 21 of 118 catches.
S Jesse Bates III was 36th in the race.
The CB Eli Apple was 69th in the total.
Van Jefferson will see the most routes against Apple, though Beckham and Kupp can be moved around as well.
There are two receiving props to bet on in the Super Bowl.
Since the Week 10 bye, Apple has really come on.
In the first nine weeks, 68.4% comp, 11.4 YPT, 104.7 rating.
Week 11-on: 46.2% comp, 7.0 YPT, 50.3 rating.
The Rams will be missing Tyler Higbee if Apple shows up, as the Bengals are 24th in the country against tight ends. According to PFF, the two LBs have combined for seven intercepts, five by Wilson and two by Pratt, but also surrendered an 82.7% completion rate and 8.0 yards per target on 146 targets.
Over the past two playoff games, the backup Rams tight end has seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown, but he is a third-year free agent who is a lot easier to cover than Higbee.
The Rams have a lot of weapons in their passing game, so the Bengals will likely try to stop them.
Harry How is a photographer. Rams running back Cam Akers is pictured.
The Rams used less than 30% of their rushing attempts with light boxes and more than twice as much with stacked boxes. The Rams have been below average against light boxes.
The light box had a success rate of 40.9%.
The box has a 4.2 YPC success rate.
The box had 3.0 YPC and a success rate of 29.8%.
The pass is likely to be prioritized by the Cincinnati defense. His comeback from an injury is admirable, but he has only 154 yards on 59 carries and a 2.6 YPC. He has yet to average more than 3.8 yards per carry.
Predicting the Super Bowl in 2022.
The spread for the Super Bowl.
The market thinks that the Rams are the better team.
The Rams deserve to be the favorite because of their pass rush, but I make the line Rams – 2.5, and our consensus PRO Projections peg it at Rams – 2.6.
Even though they will struggle in protection, they will still have mismatches in coverage to make the Rams pay when the rush doesn’t get home. Lou Anarumo has done a great job adjusting to the Rams strengths on the defensive side of the ball.
The most likely game plans for both teams involve sitting back in coverage, which could force a lot of runs and long drives to shorten the game.
There are cases for both sides of the Super Bowl.
The Rams have home-field advantage here, which is worth a few tenths of a point to the spread, but the Bengals have won each of their past five road starts as a result.
The Kansas City Chiefs were defeated by the Cincinnati Bengals 27 to 24.
The round was called the Divisional Round.
Week 15: Broncos 10.
The Ravens were defeated by the Bengals in Week 7.
Week 3 ended with a 24, the Steelers 10.
In Week 17 of the season, the Bengals had an impressive win as a home favorite against the Chiefs.
The Bengals are 7-1 as favorites this season. Only two of the 19 starts have ended with the Bengals down more than three points.
The pick is the Bengals.
The Super Bowl is over.
I have the total at 47.5, which is lower than the consensus.
I expect the teams to sit back and cover, allowing runs and short passes. 80% of the money has come in on the under despite the fact that the total opened at 49.5. The Super Bowl attracts fish like no other, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the number creeps back up to its initial open by the start of the game.
The under is a play if the number gets back up to 49.5, as you would win even with a 26-23 score.
Offenses tend to get off to slow starts in the Super Bowl due to a combination of nerves and conservatism. The first quarter of the Super Bowl has failed to crack double digits since 1999.
The two teams that fit the profile of slow starters averaged 4.3 points per first quarter, while the Rams averaged 4.0, for a combined average of 8.3. The first quarter under was 14-6 in the Rams games and 13-1 in the Bengals games, for a combined record of 27-12-1 (69%).
Under 49.5 or higher is the pick.
images: Action Network
source: Action Network